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Beijing has sent its coast guard through the waters of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past remote Japan's territory as Beijing ramps up tensions following the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding the island of Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol announced that its vessels conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are administered by Tokyo but also claimed by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation undertaken by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” officials declared.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the islands but the latest activity come amid an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Japan.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it describes as “unification”. It has left open the military option. Taiwan’s government and citizens overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would risk escalating into a international confrontation, potentially involving the US and other allies including Japan, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from Taiwan.

Military Activity

On the island, the military authorities said on Sunday morning that it had detected three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one “official” ship, which was likely the coast guard, operating around the island over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs flying between the island and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel unusually near to Yonaguni. PLA movements there are occasional, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in recent weeks.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said Beijing had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added the island had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. Taiwan reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since the Japanese official made her comments, with China’s consul general in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then called in Japan's diplomat for the first occasion since 2023, and Beijing's military authorities stated that any Tokyo's involvement would be certain to collapse.

Warning for Citizens

On Friday, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines said on Saturday that tickets to Japan could be cancelled without penalty.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

Although not an outright prohibition, a dramatic reduction in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other powers, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the United States.

However, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards the island.